What do you think...

[JoeyandDavid]

excellent information John.. as always!!

Thanks

[Joanandjoe]

Welcome back, Joey.

I think that people responding to this thread need to separate their personal situation from what they think the general situation will be.

Personal situation: Since we've decided that we don't like Caribbean cruises (not surprising for a heat hating redhead), the places we do like have gotten prohibitively expensive. We've booked an Alaska cruise for next year, but we haven't even done a post for it. The price is so high, and my vacation situation is so uncertain, that we won't post until we feel there's at least a 50 percent chance that we'll actually take the cruise (Regent Seven Seas Mariner, 8 day Alaska cruise, 5/27/08). Right now, I'd place our chances of going in the 10 to 20 percent range. Even if I can be certain that the date is OK, we're still more likely to take a land trip than go on the cruise. The cost of a decent cabin to some place other than winter hot spots has gotten to be more than we want to pay.

General situation. I agree that, despite my comment on our personal situation, low end cruising is likely to be affected more than high end cruising. If money is tight, at least some people will cut back expenses. 30 percent cut? Unlikely. However, flat demand, in a time when capacity is being increased sharply, could cause a drop in prices. It would not surprise me if average revenue per passenger drops a bit (perhaps 5 to 10 percent), with some ships having difficulty selling out. In particular, since so many people (but not us) want the newest and biggest ships, the older, medium sized ships are the ones most likely to suffer. Joe

[JoeyandDavid]

joe you brought out some interesting points...

good post thanks..

[Ol39Capt]

As we evaluate our choices, we find that even the shorter cruises are a better deal that driving, or flying somewhere, booking hotels, and really trying to figure out where to go eat (which is really a 2 hour ordeal for us). Even the expense of some of the longer ones still work out cheaper that what I would spend other wise. If the ecomony slows people down too much, the cruise line will really start giving deals just to have every room occupied, they can't sail with too many empty ones. And as I see it they are still building newer ships to put on more people.