Can San Juan survive as a cruise hub?

[mercedes]

Of all the cuts announced by airlines in recent weeks, none will have as big an impact on the cruise business as American's pullback in San Juan.

The struggling airline announced 11 days ago that it would slash flights to the Caribbean cruise hub by more than 50% -- from 38 to 18 a day. In a drastic move, the airline is eliminating daily service to San Juan entirely from Baltimore, Fort Lauderdale, Newark, Orlando, Los Angeles and Washington Dulles.

Industry watcher Mike Driscoll, editor of the newsletter Cruise Week, says the downsizing, driven by the soaring cost of fuel, has cruise-focused travel agents buzzing. Unlike mainland cruise hubs such as Miami, New Orleans and Los Angeles, San Juan has a limited drive-in market, for obvious reasons. With the exception of local residents of Puerto Rico, everyone who takes a cruise from the island gets to the ship by airplane.

"Clearly, if you see a significant decrease in lift, that will make it that much more difficult to sell cruises out of San Juan," he notes. And "the expectations are there will be more cuts announced in the months ahead. It's going to make (booking trips to San Juan) . . . much harder."

Driscoll notes that San Juan already is viewed as an expensive place to pick up a cruise ship as compared to Fort Lauderdale and Miami, and the American cutbacks are bound to make matters worse.

Spirit Airlines also has hinted that cutbacks are coming in San Juan, though just today JetBlue announced it would add flights to San Juan this fall from New York, Boston and Orlando.

"Reducing capacity certainly will increase the fares, upping the overall cost of a cruise vacation out of San Juan," he says. "If reducing capacity doesn't increase fares, that's even worse. It'd be a sign that the economy is in much more dire trouble than currently thought."

Driscoll notes that American's cuts will happen in the fall, when there are fewer ships based in San Juan. The big question, he says, is whether American or other airlines will bring back at least a few weekend flights during the peak winter cruise season.

What does the future hold for San Juan as a cruise hub? It's already not as big as it once was, notes travel agent Kristopher Krenz, owner of PAK-N-GO Cruises and Tours in Brick, N.J.

Krenz, who Cruise Loggers will know as cruisepakngo, a regular contributor to the site and a recent Cruise Logger of the Week, tells me demand for cruises out of San Juan at his agency already is way down from just a few years ago.

"Most of my Caribbean cruisers (now) are leaving from the Northeast and Florida," he notes. "I can remember many more ship departures from San Juan prior to Sept. 11, 2001. Probably one quarter of my clients (back then) did depart on a Caribbean cruise from San Juan."

Krenz notes that round-trip airfares from the New York area to San Juan used to be around $299, low enough to entice cruisers to the hub. Now fares are higher, and there are more drive-to-the-ship options for cruisers who live in New Jersey.

The allure of San Juan cruises as compared to voyages out of Florida, of course, is the itineraries. Since the ships sailing out of San Juan are starting from a position well south of Miami, they can reach southern Caribbean islands such as Barbados and St. Lucia on seven-night trips.

Among the ships sailing out of San Juan over the next year are Royal Caribbean's Adventure of the Seas, Grandeur of the Seas and Serenade of the Seas; Celebrity's Summit and Galaxy; the Caribbean Princess and Carnival's Destiny and Victory.

[rogue]

I'm flying home on AA from San Juan in November. The flight hasn't been cancelled (as yet), but who knows. The flight I'm on has only 3 seats left (probably most passengers are from my repo cruise), but that's not a guaranty today.

[JoeyandDavid]

interesting read Carmen thanks!!

[TheSkipper]

Thanks for the post, Carmen. Reading it I guess I'm not surprised, but never really gave it much thought. I've done a few cruises out of San Juan, but nothing recently and I probably will not in the near future.